Well, well, well, I guess the login still works and this site is somehow still live. That means it’s time to remember how to type and continue with the longest-running Tour preview on the internet (That is almost certainly untrue, but as far as anyone knows it sounds true, and in the age we’re living in, saying something that sounds true over and over again makes it true. Dear God, we are screwed.)

I would also like to state that no AI has been employed in the making of this preview, mostly due to the fact that you get gibberish when your prompt says “write a Tour preview in the style of an obscure pretend bike racer, and make sure to add as many references to taints as possible”. AI is simply not built for that sort of challenge. I will start this year’s preview as I always do with my general disclaimer about drugs and bikes—are they taking drugs? It wouldn’t surprise me. Do I know if they’re taking drugs? I have no idea. I have smoothed over the wrinkles in my brain that would be concerned with doping in pro bikes. Am I better off? Probably not, but I don’t have the time to wade into the nether regions of the internet to get the full story. Sigh, bikes…

The lingo: Vingo= Vingegaard, Pogo=Pogačar. This keeps me from needing to find the “č” on my keyboard.

Who will win the Tour?

Pogo. Pogo will win. This is pretty easy stuff. He will almost certainly win his fifth Tour this year, joining the club of five-time winners. We are excluding Lance “Mr Asterisk” Armstrong of course. I’m sure that drives him nuts and to that I say, “Good.” Maybe talk it out on your podcast or whatever the hell you are doing these days, Lance. I don’t listen, I don’t watch. Broadcasting a conversation with George Hincapie is a crime against being awake.

But I digress. Pogo is winning this thing. Kalshi has him at 100% (but they barely know what the Tour is over there) and Polymarket has Pogo at 74% to win, and that number seems remarkably low. Pogo hasn’t lost a stage race in three years, and to save time, we should try to figure out how he doesn’t win this Tour. Yeah, um, I’d say a crash, if he crashes and can’t get back in the race, he loses. If he stays on his bike for the entire race, I don’t see him losing.

But what about Vingo?

Vingo is on a run of wins in stage races also, but all of these stage races have been Pogo-free. Vingo did the Giro to help boost his confidence, so he might be a little fatigued for the Tour. What am I saying? It doesn’t matter, his trajectory seems to be moving in the opposite direction of Pogo, namely downward. It feels like he’s got two more years of pedaling bikes for money before he retires and is never heard from again. I mean, he might suddenly become a gregarious raconteur in his retirement, sharing stories of the countless soul-crushings at the hands of Pogo, but that seems about as likely as me becoming the king of the marmots—would both outcomes be delightful? Yes, but I would use my marmot army to settle scores, so maybe it’s better for the world if that didn’t happen.

Marmots aside, what about this French hopeful?

Is there any phrase more fraught in cycling than “French hopeful”? The road to Paris is littered with French hopefuls, and Paul Seixas is the latest to be bestowed with that title.

A quick aside here, we need to settle on a pronunciation for “Seixas” (not since Toms Skujins have we had such an array of wildly different pronunciations). I’m hearing “sex ass” a lot and while I am all for that from an immaturity level, I believe you pronounce “Seixas” as “say-shass”, in the Portuguese manner, making the “x” an “sh” sound. Is this less fun? Yes, but we should get his name correct, as it seems that he will be around a long time.

Another aside, If Twitter hadn’t turned into the cyber cafe for bots to meet the N*zi-curious, I would be all over poor Paul’s last name, Seix Kitten, Seixual awakening, Seixual healing, Seixual chocolate, Seix fiend, ugh. I despair at the lost opportunity. This is what we’ve lost as a society.

So does Seix Paul have a chance to beat Pogo? No, he does not. Granted, he did stay with Pogo when Pogo attacked at Liege with 35k to go, and Pogo did seem surprised to turn around and see him on his tail, but that only meant that Pogo had to drop one last rider before soloing in to victory. It seems like Pogo might have underestimated Seixas, and he won’t do that again. Seixas is now on Pogo’s radar. And what happens when someone shows up on Pogo’s radar? It’s a lot like showing up on the radar for a guided missile—just ask the smoking remains of the Tour hopes of Vingo, Roglic or Remco. Once Pogo knows you’re a threat, it’s a countdown to disaster.

But Seixas is young, and I guess it’s good experience to get your soul crushed for three weeks? This seems more like what the Vuelta is for, but who am I to judge the wisdom of the mighty Decathlon CMA CGM team?

I guess we have to mention Remco

I am going to quote myself from last year here: “Remco is a year younger than Pogo, so maybe he has a chance at the Tour around 2030 if Vingo retires and Pogo loses interest? But even that scenario seems unlikely, as he’ll probably get trounced by another young up-and-comer by then. But, hey, gold medals are nice.”

With the emergence of Seixas, Remco now has three riders that have to fall over for him to have a shot at the Tour win. Had Remco been born around the same time as Carlos Sastre, we’d be talking about his career in a completely different manner. Sadly for him, he shares a decade with Pogo, Vingo and now Seixas. I’d feel bad for him if he didn’t always act like a twit when he races.

The course

Lots of hills this year, I’m expecting lots of scenes of Remco getting dropped with 5K to go. There’s also a TTT start, with a new twist. They take each rider’s time instead of the time of the fourth rider, so… cool? Leave it to the Tour to see how the World Cup brought together the brown-out cultures of Scotland and Boston, and then decides to go one better by starting the Tour with four hours of staring at racer butt as they try to not get dropped by their teammates. 

What is wrong with them? Only a prologue would be duller. Just make the first stage a “winner takes the yellow death-a-palooza”, it’s the natural state of the first week of the Tour, lean in.

The rest of the race

The individual stages will be where all the action happens. There’s hilly finishes, so Mads Pederson will be all over those. MvDP will be a loyal leadout for Jasper, but he’ll get a stage for himself somehow. Merlier always seems to get a stage win. Girmay is showing form. I checked the list and Pidcock will be at the Tour. Quinn Simmons will be in many breaks, almost all of which will end in grief. I’m hoping for a stage where Campenaerts sneaks away, but he’ll probably be tethered to the Vingo train, proving that we simply cannot have nice things.