Ohmygod, ohmygod, ohmygod! What a difference a week of racing makes. Vingegaard dropped Pogo like a magazine subscription on stage 11, and now we could see a three stage battle royale in the next few days. I use the weasel word “could” to qualify my excitement, because this is the Tour, and anything can happen. These stages could just be Pogo doing little attacks and Vingegaard easily sticking to his wheel like he did on stage 14, and then they both roll in together, fist bump after the finish line and nothing changes. That would be anti-climatic—and no one wants that. We want to see how the Kruijswijk and Rogo-free Jumbo team will stack up against the pre-weakened UAE line-up. Can Pogo attack his way to the yellow? Can Vingegaard be dropped? Will Geraint Thomas be able to keep watching the GC action from 100 meters back? Damn, these next few days hold so much potential!

Being wrong is more fun

So I wrote this whole preview about how Pogo was the overwhelming favorite for the Tour win this year, and that Rogo didn’t have much of a chance, because you know, the last two years. And in my rush to tell that story, I didn’t even mention Vingegaard as a contender because I figured he’d be tethered to Rogo as he lost buckets of time to Pogo on the climbs. But then stage 5 and the hay bale of fate happened. Rogo dislocated his shoulder (and popped it back in on the roadside using a fan’s chair—someone got themselves a great souvenir!), and lost a bunch of time; setting up Vingegaard’s rise to team leadership. Who could’ve predicted that? Certainly not me, but I am grateful that Rogo got bailed out (well, I’m not happy that he fell, I don’t want anyone hurt, I’m just saying that we get a much better race with Rogo gone, what I’m trying to say here is that I’M NOT A GHOUL! I just want to see a close bike race).

And what will happen? Pogo finished behind Vingegaard in last year’s ITT, so Pogo’s got to get that time on the hills. Stage 16 finishes downhill, so maybe it’s a “hold my beer” day for Pogo? And then stages 17 and 18 finish uphill, so maybe Pogo attacks, or maybe Vingegaard drops Pogo after all the teammates have melted into the flaming French tarmac. Who knows? All I know is that I will be holed up in my basement, dodging all family and work obligations until this thing shakes out.

The emotions

Did I not tell you about the Pinot-coaster? Tibault has been putting on a master class in French panache. He attacks on stage 7 and gets dragged back on the final climb. He bides his time on stage 14, and ends up attacking too late to catch MICHAEL MATTHEWS. Oh Pinot, we can take the disappointment, it’s the hope that kills us.

But how about that Michael Matthews? He of the “nickname so stupid that it shall not be spoken”. I’ve never had strong feelings about Matthews one way or the other, but the way he battled back on stage 14 to win on a mountain stage was pretty damn glorious. I’ll admit I may have done a few dad-style fist pumps for the guy—then I sat down because it’s hard to explain why you’re getting all misty for a random Aussie on a Saturday morning.

Jasper Philipsen won his first Tour stage after thinking he had won his first earlier in the race, and in the saddest news of all, Michael Mørkøv didn’t make the time cut on stage 15, robbing us of the thrill of watching his leadout magic.