It’s time again for the only race that matters in cycling, the only race that your friends and family members can name, and the only race that gets shown on “regular” TV, it’s the Tour de France! I’ve dusted off the user name and password to nyvelocity and will now type my observations into the void of an actual website, as I am too old to be shown on TikTok videos and frankly, it’s too much work to add a platform to my ever-shrinking web footprint. If you want to get in touch, please call my beeper and I will never call you back, because what kind of animal actually talks on a phone?

The big disclaimer before I can talk about bikes.

I am old. I have seen many bike races and many exceptional performances. And due to the eras in which I watched those performances, a good percentage of them were, let’s say, pharmaceutically-induced. I am not automatically saying that the performances of today’s riders are suspect, but I will never be surprised by nefarious goings-on in the cycling world. Do they even test riders these days? I’m out of the loop. Is there still a bio-passport? Can riders still get appointments at Dr Fuentes’ gynecology office?

Brief lingo note: Vingo= Vingegaard, Pogo=Pogačar, Rogo= Roglič. This makes my life easier.

The build up to the Tour

For the first time in recent memory (that I can remember—deep research on Tour previews is for suckers), all three top contenders for the Tour did the same tune-up race, this year’s Dauphiné. Breaking the tradition of one contender doing the Dauphiné and another racing the Tour de Suisse. I’m not sure how teams decided on one race or the other in years past, but it created a situation where the cycling obsessed would pore over the results of both races and try to compare the levels of fitness and preparedness of the racers.

But this year, all the contenders just raced the Dauphiné. And Pogo crushed them all. Sooooo, game over? Give Pogo the yellow, and watch Vingo not make facial expressions on the podium presentations? Most likely, yes.

In years past, the Tour tune-up races have been excellent predictors of Tour success. Last year Vingo didn’t do either the Dauphiné or the Suisse because he got caught in the mass pile-up at the Tour of the Basque Country (the race that decided every other stage race for the year), so his form was a question mark, but we all had a suspicion that he didn’t have enough form to challenge—and we were correct. I should say that I was correct—I like to gloat when I call the Tour correctly, even if last year’s prediction was hilariously easy. I was wrong the year before, because, as always, I’m a moron. 

But this year, we have the facts staring us right in the face. Pogo is on a historical tear this year, he’s won every stage race he’s entered, and he did the spring classics season (both the muddy and hilly races), winning four of the seven races—while never finishing lower than third. It looks like Vingo doesn’t have a chance. (I’m not mentioning Remco here yet , because, let’s be honest…) But maybe there’s hope.

The battle of the network stars

There’s a lot of talk about the contest between UAE and Jumbo being a battle of “super-teams”. Each team has loaded up on talent and each team has a Yates at their disposal. 

Vingo has two Grand Tour winners (Kuss won the Vuelta—it counts—and Simon Yates won this year’s Giro) to help him through the Tour. He also has Benoot and Jorgensen for hill help, with Wout and Campenaerts for early hills and “stay at the front all day” duty. (Am I going to miss Campenaerts getting into every hopeless break for three weeks? Lord, yes, I will miss it so.)

Pogo’s team is also strong, with a Yates (Adam, who won the Suisse last year—I guess tune up races actually mean nothing?) and Joao Almeida for hill company, Wellens playing the role of a Temu Wout (ouch, that’s rough, I love Wellens but that line is irresistible< sorry Tim), and Politt taking his unmistakable dental game to the front and grinding away kilometers.

All this team building is all well and good, but you can only ride the bus so far, and once the bus drops everyone else off, you’re on your own. And Pogo has shown to be the strongest rider at the final bus stop. Plus, what will teams be doing when Pogo attacks with 60k to go on a flat stage and Vingo is forced to join alone? Will they ride behind Soudal and compare Yateses?

The contenders

Tadej Pogačar 

It’s now 3-2 in Pogo’s favor in Tour wins, Vino is battling to see whether he becomes a Pogo footnote or a half of a rivalry for the ages. This year looks like the Tour that attaches an asterisk to his name on the way to footnote city, but I’ve been wrong before.

Jonas Vingegaard

It looks like Jonas has regained his health just in time to get destroyed by Pogo. But I will never count him out, he’s too unflappable. He seems to shake off losses and returns to form, all while never changing facial expressions. He is not made of stone, of course, he’s probably more of a aggregate-type material, a gravel if you will.

Remco Evenepoel

And speaking of small rocks, let’s talk about Remco, who will be tossing pebbles at the window of the white jersey. Well, that might be what he will be doing? He certainly won’t be racing for the yellow jersey. Have you seen him on a hill with Pogo and Vingo? Actually, that’s a trick question, because you see him at the start of the hill, but by the top of the hill, he’s disappeared. It’s a splendid magic trick.

Remco is a year younger than Pogo, so maybe he has a chance at the Tour around 2030 if Vingo retires and Pogo loses interest? But even that scenario seems unlikely, as he’ll probably get trounced by another young up-and-comer by then. But, hey, gold medals are nice.

Primož Roglič 

Primož, maybe you’ve heard of this thing called the “Vuelta”? Rogo was last seen at the Giro, and to show how slight his chances at the Tour are this year, I didn’t even bother to look up whether he crashed at the Giro or just had a really bad race. I even watched the race and can’t remember whether he was a factor. That’s certainly not a omen for Tour success.

Enric Mas

Mas will continue his eternal dance with fifth place.

Ben O’Connor

We will begin the countdown on his climbing explosion on my signal.

So the GC may not be the race to watch this year, but we will always have the sprinters.

Assuming that Pogo doesn’t jump away at 10k to go on every sprint stage to ensure he doesn’t get mangled by road furniture, we may have some exciting sprint stages this year. It looks to be a three horse race between Jasper Philipsen, Jonathan Milan and Tim Merlier.

Jasper has the closest thing to a lead-out train (I guess lead-out trains aren’t really a thing anymore, man I miss Morkov) with MVdP and Kaden Groves, so he doesn’t really have any excuses to not win. Feels like he’ll win one stage, and stare sheepishly at his feet on the bus while talking to MVdP after the stages he doesn’t win.

There’s death, there’s taxes and there’s Tim Merlier finding ways to win sprints without team support.

Jonathan Milan is a head-bobbing sprint machine, the likes of which we haven’t seen since Gerald Ciolek (those who know, know), and Trek isn’t bringing the Danish win-machine known as Mads, so Milan will be very keen to win a stage. He probably will do that, and I will note every manic head bob.