Before we get down to our annual middle-school-level savaging of the hard-working professionals of the Tour de France peloton, we need to address the biggest development in the world of cycling today, I’m speaking of course, about the Netflix series Unchained. For those of you unfamiliar with the series, it’s a behind-the-scenes look at the 2022 Tour. Riders are interviewed in Jersey Shore-style vignettes and they are followed on their buses and hotel rooms, giving fans a look at the goings on of teams at the Tour. It follows the format of the Netflix Series Drive to Survive, which filmed F1 teams behind the scenes and helped raise that upstart sport to be worth oodles of billions instead of just scads of billions.

Netflix took a look at the Tour de France, and said to themselves, “Europeans, Real Housewives-level drama, this Thibaut Pinot guy, I think we have something here.” Does this mean that cycling will cash in on the Netflix Effect? I don’t think there will be less interest in the Tour this year. Will there be a tsunami of new fans that raise the profile of the sport to where we have a Tour of Las Vegas? Probably not, but the series was fun to watch. And did you know that the Tour is 21 days long? My goodness.

Tadej Pogačar, not ready for his close up

UAE, in a move reminiscent of the meeting that brought New Coke into the world, decided to not participate in the filming of the series, because, you know, why would you want all that extra exposure? I mean, the name is already printed on the front of the jersey, what more do you need? UAE’s decision to keep film crews from one of the most charismatic racers of the last twenty years is perplexing. And in the world of bikes, perplexing decisions can be problematic. How does UAE hope to have us catch sportswashing fever if they don’t expose us to the virus?

At this point we should take a little trip down bike memory lane, specifically down deception lane, the lane where riders were turning their blood into sludge or participating in self-managed blood-recycling programs. These deceptive activities required discretion, and many times these secret activities occurred on team buses and in hotels during stage races (with assistance from campers and motorcycles and long drives in cars—it was a wacky time).

To many grizzled Tour watchers, suspicions are aroused when scrutiny is avoided. Let me be clear, I am not accusing anyone of shenanigans, and both teams and riders do have a right to privacy, but choosing to keep the two-time Tour winner away from the spotlight raised eyebrows. I suppose it came down to corporate (Is UAE considered a corporation here? These national teams can be a bit odd to categorize sometimes.) cowardice. UAE didn’t want to risk looking like the bad guys. But did UAE even watch Drive to Survive? It was back rubs all around on that series. No one came out looking like a villain. Even Fernando Alonso came off as sympathetic, and you know it took all the willpower he had to not bump teammate Esteban Ocon off the track on every formational lap in 2022.

Netflix isn’t stupid, they aren’t going to risk access to all that sweet, sweet bus footage to make video hit pieces on skinny Europeans. They want the series to come off like an 8-episode long teary Olympic-vignette. Would Netflix not get every story precisely right? Of course not. Would they take artistic license to increase drama? Lord yes. But UAE’s decision to stay out of the series is a blunder. Pogačar would have been the darling of the series. He would’ve tufted his way into hearts all over the world. It was an opportunity missed, and I hope it’s due to corporate idiocy rather than some classic cycling skulduggery.

Jonas Vingegaard

Speaking of riders that would’ve preferred to not have to sit through extra interviews during the Tour, we have Jonas Vingegaard. During his solo interviews, you could see the energy draining from Vingo. The extra press obligations that come from leading the Tour seemed to wear on Vingo even more than other riders. Each interview seems to make him long for his days as a fish flinger.

This is not a good mind space for a rider trying to win the Tour. While Pogo will be making TikToks while jumping in the hotel pool in a Halloween costume, Vingo will be trudging from interview to interview like a second grader brought in from recess. Vingo was a co-team leader last year. This year, he’s the main man. Will it get to him? Let’s see if he makes Wout do all his media for him.

Speaking of Wout, Jumbo has an incredibly stacked team. Ineos may have the money, but Jumbo has the riders. Laporte will probably win a stage, Wout will Wout, and Vingo’s climbing team is very deep. Pogo’s UAE team has acquired a Yates to help in the hills, but it looks like it’ll be 3 on 2 when the hills get really steep. So the team battle definitely goes to Vingo—and anyone who talks about Wout’s ambitions getting in the way of Vingo’s Tour win—just stop, that’s not a thing, Netflix tried to gin up that controversy. Wout spent hours at the front on mountain stages last year, and he will do it again this year. He just looks pouty doing it. It’s his “Resting Pout Face”.

Tadej Pogačar

Speaking of not having pouty face, let’s discuss Pogo’s chances this year. Briefly, his chances are really, really good. Broken wrist aside, he seems to be ready for the Tour. His preparation race was the Slovenian national championships (he didn’t do any of the Tour warm-up races), which he won. So naturally I’m ready to call the Tour win as a foregone conclusion. Well, maybe not. Pogo and Vingo last went head to head at Paris Nice, and Pogo won that race convincingly. This information of course means nothing. That race was in the spring, and there have been other races and broken bones in the interim. All that remains is the distant memories of Pogo riding away from Vingo, will that happen again? Maybe, that’s why we watch, silly.

Pogo has the aforementioned Yates to help in the hills, along with Soler and Majka, but Jumbo has more team than UAE. This might be the year where Pogo has to employ human tactics instead of sending it whenever the spirit moves him. Do I want this to happen? Lord no. I want Pogo to keep Pogo-ing forever, because I like watching bike racing, not DS chess.

If Vingo isn’t clutching his pillow in introverted tears every night, Pogo has a real race on his hands, and it’s going to be a blast.

Egan Bernal

Fun fact, Bernal won the Tour. He did, you can look it up. He won the Giro also, and he looked poised to dominate the sport for years to come until a horrible training accident robbed us of an annual three-way battle for the Tour. I hate this. Can you imagine 2019 Bernal battling 2022 Pogo and Vingo? It would’ve been phenomenal, but noooo some knobhouse in a car wrecked all of that. Unlike, all the unlikes possible.

What will Bernal’s Tour look like? Maybe a top five with no stage wins because no one will want to let him get away? Do I want this? No! I want Bernal attacking and putting the wood to Pogo and Vingo, but I don’t think that’s happening this year.

Tom Pidcock

I once typed that I could never see Geraint Thomas winning the Tour. And I feel the same about Tom Pidcock, which means he will probably win the Tour one day like Thomas did. On paper, it’s tempting to say Pidcock may win one day, he seems to have a lot of the parts in place. But he’s got to get through Vingo and Pogo, and I don’t see that happening this year without Covid helping him out.

Thibaut Pinot

Part of me wishes that the whole peloton would let Thibaut slip away and win a stage in his last Tour, but that’s not how Thibaut works. Thibaut gets in a break, pulls everybody around, makes faces and finishes second after being collected in the last 200 meters. And that’s why we (and the French) love him. It’s the Pinot way and I will miss seeing him after he retires to his goats and donkeys.

Sprinting

This year’s Tour will be all about Cav’s attempt to break Merckx’s record for stage wins. All other sprinting storylines will take a back seat, which is too bad, because we will have some great competitions. Grimay vs MVdP in the hilly sprints. Philipsen vs Jakobsen in the flat sprints. Wout for everything. Groenewegen vs everyone else’s shoulders in every sprint he contests. 

These will all be fun stories to watch, but Cav’s pursuit of the record will be the story. Will he Cav it and crash out of the race on stage 3? Possibly. He tossed his body to the ground in the Giro and still finished fourth on the stage. He is going for broke this season, and it will be great to watch. His leadout man Thomas won’t be around, but Cav can improvise. I think his chances for the record are 50/50. His chances for a dance with the downside of gravity are 70/30.

The Climber’s Jersey

This jersey has Pinot written all over it. He won the mountain’s classification in the Giro, and I bet he does the same in the Tour. What’s more Pinot than no stage wins and the consolation of the polka dots jersey? It’s the most Pinot thing ever.