If I worked in hyperbole, I would say that I can’t remember previewing a Tour that had an outcome so predictable that it was easier than predicting that Elon Musk will never host Saturday Night Live again (his performance combined Peyton Manning’s acting chops with Steven Seagal’s comedy timing). But I try to be realistic when evaluating the careers of cycling professionals for free on the internet, and I can remember a few times when the Tour seemed over before it began.

A trip back in time with the old guy

Sooooooo I’m gonna be a bummer here and point out that there was a guy at the turn of the century that was nearly unbeatable at the Tour. Sure, it was close once, but he mostly dominated for seven years. What we didn’t know at the time was that he was also essentially a rolling pharmacy. And his wins came right after another guy that won five Tours in a row in an era where riders were so doped up that they almost evolved into another species. And then after that first guy, there were even more shenanigans. It was absurd.

I’m not making any accusations here, but I’ve been a fan of cycling for a long time, and historically that meant that dominating performances were not only suspect, they were justifiable grounds for suspicion (check the Wikipedia entry for the Tour that lists “no winner” for the years 1999 to 2005). If you’ve been burned before, you get cautious. It’s this dumb tightrope that cycling fans have been nudged onto.

I’m not trying to throw suspicion on Pogo, but suspiciousness in cycling has been richly rewarded in the past. We cycling fans have been burned before. It’s a sadness that we all share. 

Is Pogo exciting to watch? Yes. Is it great that he races and wins in a bunch of different events? Absolutely. Is it a bummer that these performances raise suspicion? Lord yes. Is a Pogo to blame? Not if he’s racing clean. And if he’s clean, and he’s feeling put upon by fan’s suspicion, who should he blame? 

Well, for a lot of us there’s a Texas Chud-shaped shadow over the sport that will never go away. (He even hosts a podcast about the Tour, people tell me it’s insightful, but every discussion about tactics should start with him saying, “First, take every drug, just everything you can find and see what sticks against the wall.”) If you started watching cycling after that era, you might not understand the caution of older fans, but if you once cheered for a guy who conquered both cancer and the Tour, you are reluctant to fully back any racer, because you got burned really badly. Is it unfair? Yes. Is it understandable? Also yes. So, hurray for bikes?

OK, enough bummer

This Tour’s route will have a flat, windy and treacherous first week, one that could produce a result as wild as Vincenzo Nibali, Tour de France champion. Listen, I like me some Nibz, but he was absolutely the beneficiary of some good fortune in the form of bad fortune of others on stage five over the cobbles. The same could happen this year. One wayward Spaniard, a wobbly Aussie or the wrong tires (who is UAE’s tire sponsor?) on the cobbles and we could have a huge shake up in the GC. Will such an outcome be fair? No. Will it make for good watching? Of course. Who doesn’t like it when the DS of team fill-in-the-blank complains after the stage five that “cobbles have no place in a Grand Tour”? It happens every time, and this year will be no different. We won’t listen to the those DSes though, because the first week is dull and cobbles and mayhem are fun.

There’s plenty of hills for this Tour, but the long stages with multiple categorized climbs have made for cautious racing in recent years. On these stages, there’s usually a break up the road, with the GC leader’s team controlling (or just Ineos riding on the front all day for… reasons?) and then the racing starts with 5k to go on the hill. This is how the Pogo era mountain stages unfold—it’s too risky to go early so all the GC contenders mark Pogo on the last climb, just before he jumps away and gains a minute and a half in five kilometers.

The Contenders

Tadej Pogočar

The only thing that stops Pogo is gravity or Covid. Pogo has side-stepped the traditional preparation races for the Tour to do his home county’s tour. And he dominated, granted it’s the Tour of Slovenia, the word “slow” is right in the title (phonetically), but he and his team were so strong that he and Maika would just take off and play rock paper scissors to see who would take the stage win.

Pogo is coming to the Tour with his best team yet. He will have Majka, Brandon McNulty, Marc Soler and George Bennett to roll through the hills. Is this team as strong as Jumbo? Probably not, but it won’t matter. Pogo has won the Tour with much weaker teams.The cobbled stage will be the metaphorical 3 kilometer mark for the first week of racing, and if Pogo’s tufts are intact afterward stage 5 (UAE will want Matteo Trentin to spoon Pogo across the cobbles), it will be grim news for the rest of the pack.

Pogo is alleged to not like the heat, but what does that mean exactly? Does his performance suffer? Does he not like having to drink more? Does he not like getting tan lines?

Primož Roglič

How does Roglič get psyched to race the Tour? I’m not being a wise butt here, I’m asking a straightforward question, how does he get ready to race against Pogo when he’s gotten waxed for the last two Tours? Rogo won the Dauphine, which for most riders would be a season highlight, but he’s a Grand Tour winner (yeah, the Vuelta, but it counts). He has a lot of expectations on his shoulders. 

He has a stronger team than Pogo, but the problem is that they will be working to put him into a situation where he has to take on Pogo, which is like moving someone to the head of the line to get kicked by a horse. Maybe he can get some redemption at the Vuelta?

If Pogo falls down

So, let’s imagine that Pogo gets Covid or has a bad day on stage 5 (and let’s not forget that Pogo won Strade Bianche this year, which is like a tiny baby Roubaix). Who will be the rider that can challenge for the Pogo-free Tour? Well, Roglič if he makes it, but there’s other contenders too. Aleksandr Vlasov has been showing form (and then got Covid at the TdS, so who knows?). Ben O’Connor has been saucy lately. Geraint Thomas won the Tour de Suisse, but that race came down to the last riders standing. When I think about the terms “cobbles” and “Adam Yates” together I hear a shrieking sound in the distance. Chris Froome will be at the Tour, I suppose, so we should mention him, but he should probably just work for Michael Woods.

Who does that leave? Who can ride crosswinds and survive cobbles and ride uphill? I’m almost afraid to say it out loud, so I’ll whisper it, *Nairo*.

LEAVE PINOT AND BARDET ALONE

Alright, hear me out here, France. Bardet and Pinot have been showing good form this year, and they have winning races, but let’s not get crazy here. Polka dots jersey? A definite possibility. Stage wins? Certainly in the cards. A GC win? Highly unlikely. So let’s just enjoy these two riders in the twilight of their careers. And if they should actually win the Tour? You are all invited to my place to overturn and burn my neighbor’s Subaru in celebration.

The sprinters

There’s a lot of talk about whether Quick-Step should’ve taken Cav or Jakobsen, and I see good arguments on both sides. Cav could’ve broken Meckx’s stage win record with a little help from the Morkov sprint train express, but Jakobsen is faster than Cav (you know it’s true) and could potentially win more stages, so it’s up to Lefevere, who probably doesn’t want to pay out some bonus that he agreed to in Cav’s contract when he was half a bottle of wine into dinner and convinced that Cav would never win again. Hey, it’s Quick-Step, where sprinters who ask for more money end up with contract with Cofidis. The guy on Quick-Step I will be watching is Møkøv, who will be weaving his mastery of the last 2Ks, and it will be glorious.

Is this the year we see the Wout/MVdP war expand into the battle for the green jersey? It could happen, but MVdP could be leading out Philipsen for a few stages, and Wout won’t really have a lead out train, so who knows? Wout sat out the Belgian Championships to rest a knee injury, so he might not be in his usual Tour fitness. It’s hard to predict what will happen, but I will be watching them watch each other while watching the  Tour.

There’s a lot of other sprinters who have chances at stage wins: Ewan might rally, the Groanin’ Wagon is always a threat, Sagz recently won a sprint (and also won Covid for the THIRD time), Kristoff won at the Tour of Norway, hell even Coquard has been fast lately. It will be fun to watch them all try to not get crushed by Quick-Step.

The climbers

This is the point in my Tour preview where I usually lose interest. The Tour is weird, because many climbers are trying to win the GC, they aren’t really racing to win stages or points in the mountains classification. The polka dot jersey doesn’t always go to the best climber, it usually goes to the best climber who isn’t in contention for the GC and still cares enough to try for points every day. Many times this competition is uncompetitive, and I can’t ever remember who won it last year. Oh, the internet says here that is was Pogo, so I guess I’ll predict a Pogo win this year. Predictions, so easy!

Thomas De Gendt is not at the Tour this year, so it will be up to Wellens to make this thing compelling.