Just when I think that cycling cannot hurt itself any more, it hands its beer to a buddy says,  “Watch this.”, and invents a yoga pose that delivers a self-punch to the groin while exposing its rear end to a pack of passing Cub Scouts. If you are a causal fan of cycling, you may not know that Chris Froome, who has won the previous four Tours, was found to have a LOT of asthma medication in his whiz during last year’s Vuelta (which he won) and has been racing (and winning) since that pee test—and if you are not a casual cycling fan; you’ve been tempted to stick your head into the door jamb and bash away with the door until you no longer know what the words “Salbutamol” or “adverse analytical finding” mean.

This goddam sport. I mean, seriously. Here’s the story in incredibly broad strokes. (If you want the detailed strokes, you can get them from Bonnie Ford, Shane Stokes or Joe Lindsey). In the 2017 Vuelta, Chris Froome’s urine test from stage 18 (that’s near the end of the race, which is important to note) showed that he had twice the amount of Salbutamol (2000ng/mL) in his urine that is permitted (anything over 1000/ng/mL gets you popped). Normally, because a rider is allowed to be both asthmatic and to take Salbutamol, riders that test positive get to plead their case and can also undergo a controlled pharmacokinetic study (CPKS) which is essentially a lab test where they try to replicate the circumstances of the event (which in Froome’s case I image would require him to ride like a washing machine with brick in it while staring a hole through his bike computer) and take then hits of Salbutamol to prove everything is cool.

Still with me? This whole decision making process is not supposed to be public, but Froome’s tests results got leaked, so we all now know way too much about Froome September pee. And since Froome was fighting the Adverse Analytical Finding (AAF), he wasn’t officially suspended. That meant he could still race—and he did, he went and won the Giro. While he was winning the Giro and racing bikes in other places, he and his team were also fighting the AAF from WADA, and their defense was essentially: “Hey, you know that CPKS test? Yeah, that isn’t going to cut it for us, because the test that came up positive was on stage 18 of a Grand Tour—and you really can’t replicate those conditions in a lab test because you’d need to ride for 17 stages beforehand and there would be dehydration and exhaustion and packs of inebriated Spaniards screaming in your face. So, we’re going to go ahead and say that the result of the test was more like 1400-ish, when adjusted for factors like racing for a really long time, being sick (and still winning the Vuelta) and lack of Spaniards. Also, our lawyers have 1,500 pages of evidence (some of which is dog-based study, because we need to keep this as ridiculous as possible—that’s how we roll in the world of bikes), so go ahead and check that over, and we’re sure you’ll find that your Salbutamol test sucks and Mr Froome can race wherever he wants.”

So WADA’s response was (probably): “OK, lets’ send this to our lawyer Sven. (I’m just guessing the WADA lawyer’s name is Sven, because that sounds about right) What? We can’t afford Sven anymore? Well, who has time to analyze 1,500 pages of evidence? Anyone? OK, well, I guess we’re done here, over to you UCI.” And then, just in time for the Tour, the UCI announces that they’re cool with the WADA findings, Froome can ride the Tour, and no, you can’t see the 1,500 pages of evidence, because, you know, reasons.

And scene. Froome is riding the Tour because he was caught by a test that a legion of lawyers on his side say is maybe dodgy (oops, our bad, Diego Ulissi), and shouldn’t count. He’s now going to the Tour, where he’ll be pelted with rotten cheese and urine soaked baguettes all the way to Paris.

Yay, bikes. With that behind us, let’s move on to seeing who will win this Tour.

The Contenders

Chris Froome

Anyone remember the Skokie Nazis? No? In 1977, a group of Nazis wanted to march in the town of Skokie, Illinois, which was a predominantly Jewish suburb of Chicago, because they were Nazis—and assholes, which should go without saying, but these days, I guess needs to be said. So the Nazis took the Village of Skokie to court and were represented by the ACLU, because the ACLU actually reads laws and they defend laws, even when that means defending assholes. The ACLU defended the Nazis free speech, and the Nazis won, because you are free to be an asshole in the United States. The Nazis eventually marched in Chicago, in what I’m assuming was the worst parade ever.

The reason I’m describing the Skokie Nazis is because they used the law to get permission to march somewhere they weren’t wanted and, if they were really being honest with themselves, they didn’t want to be either. This is akin to the situation Chris Froome and Team Sky find themselves in. Let me be clear, TEAM SKY ARE NOT IN ANY WAY THE EQUIVALENT OF SKOKIE NAZIS, but they will be just as welcome in France as the Skokie Nazis were in Illinois. They have every legal right to be there, but that won’t make them popular.

That being said, Froome has a 50/50 chance of winning this Tour. He knows how to win a Tour, and if he does, he will join the exclusive five wins club. He will be going for the Tour/Giro double, which was last done by Marco Pantani. At the height of the EPO era. So I’ll just let that little factoid sit there.

Oh, and Bernal might actually be a better option at this year’s Tour, he’s good. Geraint, probably not.

Richie Porte

This Tour really has an “up for grabs” feel to it, and on paper, there’s no reason why Porte shouldn’t win. He won the Tour de Suisse. He can climb, he’s can time trial and he has a strong team, he’s backed by Tejay “Bad Day” Van Garderen, and they have a strong TTT team. It’s just that Porte has had tremendously bad luck: crashes, ill-timed punctures, running into motorcycles, he’s really done it all. If he doesn’t spontaneously combust, he has a good shot.

Tom Dumoulin

Dumoulin was second to Froome at the Giro, but at the end it really wasn’t close. I thought the Giro was going to be a battle between Froome and Dumoulin, but Dumoulin didn’t have an answer to Froome’s explosiveness on the mountains. Plus Dumoulin is doing the Giro/Tour double for some idiotic reason also. Get ready to watch hours of footage of Dumoulin getting gapped from the front group on the last climbs of this Tour.

Nibali

Besides Froome, Vincenzo Nibali is the only rider racing the Tour this year that has won the Tour before. He skipped the Giro this year to concentrate on the Tour—but this won’t matter because, as I have said about Nibali before—he only wins Grand Tours when all of the riders faster than him have fallen down. His Tour success in 2014 was due to rivals getting bounced out on the cobbles and then valiantly holding off—wait for it—Jean Christophe Peraud. 

The Tour has a stage on the Roubaix cobbles this year, so there’s a chance that Nibali could benefit from a pile-up there again, but I doubt it.

Bardet

WHO ELSE HAS A CASE OF BARDET FEVER?! Well, I do. No, seriously, he’s been a blast to watch this season. He was second at a ripping edition of Strade Bianche, he raced some cobbles at Dwars door Vlaanderen, and he took a shot at LBL. He’s in the midst of a YOLO season. Will he win the Tour? Almost assuredly not (he can’t do that TT thing very well), but if he wins, will it be awesome to watch? Hell yeah!

Zakarin/Maika/Fuglsang

All strong, all should be included on any contenders list, none will win the Tour

Uran

Nice guy, saying he’s a long shot is being very kind.

Valverde/Landa/Quintana

Dear God, Movistar is a hot mess. For some reason they keep insisting on bringing Valverde to Grand Tours as an outside shot for the GC win. (Valverde won the Vuelta in 2009—nine years ago, he’s 38 now—can we stop this?) And they insisted on doing this when they had Nairo Quintana (who won two Grand Tours in the last four years) on the team. What does Nairo have to do to get some respect? If this keeps up, we may actually see a Nairo facial expression—something along the lines of “how about you guys go get bent?”

Adding to the notion that Movistar hates their riders is the inclusion of a THIRD GC contender in Mikel Landa. Landa had a good Tour is service of Froome last year, and decided to show the world what he could do as a team leader, and so far he’s shown us that he’s probably not going to win the Tour. Roglic beat him at the Tour of the Basque Country, and he finished 16th at the Tour de Suisse, 13 places behind Quintana. So again, what exactly does Nairo have to do to get some respect at Movistar? I can’t even go on here, they are the dumbest, most frustrating team I’ve ever encountered.

 Adam Yates

Adam Yates is coming on strong for this Tour. Second at the Dauphine, fourth at the Tour of California with some saucy performances, and his twin almost won the Giro. This could be his year.

Roglic

You probably don’t know much about the Slovakian Primoz Roglic, because if you did, you’d know that he’s Slovenian, not Slovakian (I’m betting Phil Liggett will confuse Roglic’s nationality at least once a day this Tour). He’s a quiet powerhouse that can climb and TT, and he won the Tours of the Basque Country, Romandie and Slovenia this year. He’s a legitimate dark horse pick this year, but that still doesn’t mean Phil Ligget won’t ask him if he knew Sagan growing up in Slovakia.

Sprinters

Sagan

Peter Sagan is at the point in his career where he doesn’t just look to win races, he looks to win races in interesting ways. He won a sprint stage at the Tour de Suisse, and the next day decided to see if he could just get away and win solo on a day that he could’ve won by just sitting in. The point is that Sagz is looking to improvise. He’s looking to make some jazz odyssey style things happen. He’ll want that yellow jersey on stage one for certain, but he’ll also want to win the Roubaix stage for “why the hell not?” reasons. He’s a lock for green unless  he gets Cav stuck in his armpit again or he decides to quit bikes entirely and focus on his solo record.

Groenewegen

This could be a break out year for Dylan Groenewegen. The “Groanin’ Wagon” has shown some startling accelerations this season, winning KBK over Demare and Cobrelli and taking three out of five stages at the Tour of Norway. 

Climbers

Can’t say I care about the climber’s jersey this year.

De Gendt

Look for Thomas De Gendt to be in about 900 kilometers worth of breakaways at this year’s Tour. That’s just what TDG does. And he’ll do it on cobble, on climbs and on the flats. The man is crazy and it is awesome.