2008 Tour day Schmalz preview

It’s time for the fourth annual Tour day schmalz, wherein we (well, actually, just me, I’m adding the royal “we” as I am suffering from delusions of grandeur as well as suffering from the illusions of Doug Henning, the Canadian Houdini) follow the televised coverage of the hard working riders of the professional peloton and mock them mercilessly. It is obviously unfair that I do this, and I am in no way qualified to dismiss the efforts of these dedicated racers, but at times like this, I merely reference the career of Paris Hilton, singer, as evidence that the universe is, quite indeed, not a fair place. This will be the fourth edition of the TdS, and frankly, I am really pushing my luck. This could be the year where everyone finally tires of my acerbic snark, and I will be tossed aside like a dirty bidon. But I do have a back-up plan, there’s this show called “The Real World”; and I’m working on my audition tape. It’s going to be awesome and will surely catapult me into a lucrative television career!

But I digress. We face the prospect that this Tour could be the confluence of the dullest men ever to contest a Tour making this race the most exciting Tour ever. This Tour is absolutely wide open. You have to give Cadel his due, as the fellow who beat him last year is not allowed into the race this year, but he’s still Cadel and zzzz….. Ugh, my eyes reflexively fall into a REM pattern just thinking about Cadel riding the Tour.

Where was I? Oh, yeah, this Tour may be the most compelling ever. They’ve eliminated the finish line time bonuses. Taking away the big 20 second prize at the finale might seem to be a way to make the race duller, but absent any free seconds at the finish, riders will have to make all of their time on the road. This means contenders will have to attack, and they will have to watch the finishes like hawks as to not let any gaps open. Every second will count and every second will be fought over. That also means podium hopefuls will have to burn a lot of team matches early in the race, so guys with weak teams will suffer early. There are also less time trial kilometers this year, so the attacks will have to happen on the hills to have the most effect.

Another change is that the ASO (the Tour’s overlords) have eliminated the opening prologue. And I thank God for this occurrence. If the Tour was trying to attract a wider global audience, the prologue never really made sense. In years past, the prologue served as a way to seed the riders and to also extinguish the hopes of knuckleheads that would take a shot at the sprint on the first stage, in hopes of snatching the yellow jersey. This year we are freed from the strictures of the time clock. This means that every Juan, Gert and Henri will try to sneak in a win and get the yellow jersey. Think about that for a moment. You win and you get the yellow – every rider’s dream. I expect the first stage finish to be absolute mayhem. Every racer dreams about pulling on the Maillot Jaune, and only one tiny finish line will stand in their way. We like to think that professional racers don’t take stupid risks, but let me tell you, the higher the reward (say, the yellow jersey in the Tour) the greater the risks they will take. They will not hesitate for a moment to chop any wheel, take any risk or even face the prospect of crossing the line in a bloody pile, as long as they get that precious yellow Lycra. I anticipate that the finish of the first stage of the Tour will resemble a mass sprint contested amongst drunken Category 4 racers. It’s really going to be spectacular.

Also absent from this year’s Tour will be the publicized medical check-ups of the riders. Sadly, we will not be able to enjoy the spectacle of shirtless, emaciated Europeans having their blood pressure checked.

The Contenders

Cadel Evans

Ugh. The thing about Cadel racing style is that he’s – timid. That’s the word I would use to describe his racing style, timid. Timid is a word best used to describe tit mice (best. species. ever.), not Tour contenders. Plus, he’s got to drag along Robbie McEwen – not a climber who can help in the mountains – as Lotto’s hedged bet against getting shut out at the Tour. Did you ever hear of Bernard Hinault’s awesome sprinter teammate? No, you didn’t? Well, that’s because the Badger would’ve never heard of it! There are no sprinters on a Tour contender’s team! Hinault may have slipped up and let an upstart American on his team, but a sprinter? Never! Yet things being the way they are, we must think of Cadel as the favorite. Do you feel good about that? Neither do I.

But despite his past inclination towards passivity, this may be the year when Cadel attacks – because he will have to. He’s got a great new teammate in Popovych. The time trials are shorter and Cadel may not have enough solo kilometers to grind his way to the top position. Cadel did attack Valverde in the mountains in the Dauphine, but not much came of it, but it was a daring step forward for Cadel. I get the sneaking feeling that some climber will come along to “drink his milk shake”. Don’t go bowling, Cadel, that’s all I can say…

Denis Menchov

He won the Vuelta, so he cannot be ignored, but of course, many guys use the Vuelta as a training race for the Olympics, Worlds, or any other end of the season race that no one cares about, so you know, that’s huge. You know what you never hear a racer say? “I’m racing the Tour to get some miles in” or “I’m using the Tour as training for the Tour of Germany.” Granted, Menchov got boned out of his leader’s spot last year by that skinny weasel Rasmussen, but it’s not like he wrenched the leadership of Rabobank away from him. He sat back and watched Razzy jump into the lead of the team. Not exactly the sign of a Tour winner. A real winner would’ve added extra sponsor stickers to the frame of the gram obsessed Razzy and watched as he shrieked to the mechanics about the added weight, and of course he would’ve also punched him in the mouth as he reached for his salad at the team dinner and said, “Listen, Nosferatu, I’m leading this team, and if you think you’re going to ride away from me, you’ve got another thing coming!” And if this were the movie “Top Gun”, they would then kiss passionately, but I’m not sure, as I haven’t seen Top Gun in a while, but I think that’s the way it happened.

Carlos Sastre

Carlos is the final spoke of the Axis of the Uninteresting tri-spoke wheel. He’s a very nice person as far as I can tell from reading interviews with him, but he just doesn’t light up a room. That shouldn’t count against him as a racer, but in my silly book, it does. Carlos though, will attack in the mountains – so he really doesn’t qualify as a dull racer – but I really wanted to make my dull racers’ metaphor about a threesome. So I will just lump Carlos in with Cadel and Menchov, and he becomes a casualty to my need to manufacture a drama. Plus, Carlos has to worry about the Schleck Brothers nipping at his heels during the race.

Valverde

Every year I would cut and paste the same phrase, “I’m putting him here just to try and sound smart; no one knows what he’s capable of”. It’s a year later and we know now what he can do at the Tour – sixth place. He did win the overall and the ITT at the Dauphine, beating both Levi and Cadel in the 31k test, so perhaps his time trialing has come around. He tends to space off during the first week of the Tour and falls into a ditch or gets caught in a crash or he will get hit by lightening or some other similar tragedy. If he survives the first week – a tall order in this year’s prologue-free race – he can try and bounce away on the hills. He has a strong team, with 2006 Tour “first guy behind the leader who got kicked out” Oscar Pereiro. Oscar will again be getting water bottles for Valverde this year, and he will also be quietly weeping bitter tears in his hotel room every night.

Stijn Devolder

Look at how out little Stijn has grown up! He stole the Booner’s thunder at Flanders, and now he’s going for the Tour overall. He was able to hang in the Suisse mountain stages and can time trial, so he could be the next Cadel Evans – can you feel the excitement building? There’s no telling what he will do at the Tour. He REALLY likes talking into his race radio. He’s on his mic more than a boozed-up best man at his best friend’s wedding. Which makes it especially interesting that he didn’t have his radio earpiece in at Flanders, hmmmm….

Damiano Cunego

Can you believe that Cunego’s only 26? It seems like he should be retiring soon. He won the Giro in 2004, much to Simoni’s displeasure, and then got mono and hasn’t quite been the same ever since. He recently broke up with his long time coach and advisor. He’s in uncharted territory with this year’s Tour. He can attack in the mountains, so he has a chance. Unfortunately, the same can be said of about 50 other guys. I would describe his time trialing as “crap-tastic.”

The Schlecks

For the next few years the Schleck brothers, Andy and Frank will always be discussed together as if they were one preposterously skinny entity. Andy may have more potential than Frank, his older brother, but they both have serious time trialing problems. Perhaps it’s because they both weigh about as much as gnats’ gas. With less time trial kilos this year, they have a shot, but they have to decide who on CSC will be their leader.

In the skewed Kabuki theater of my mind, I fantasize that the Schlecks are like two-thirds of the Hanson Brothers from “Slap Shot”; every night they race slot cars in their room, and they sneak punches at each other’s shoulders behind Bjarne’s back. They just need to tape up their Oakleys and the image will be complete for me.

The Luxembourg Hansons were able to gang up on Valverde at Liege-Bastogne-Liege and then beat him into first place while they finished 3rd and 4th, so they have that going for them.

And I would be remiss if I didn’t mention Frank’s crash over the guardrail and into the treetops at the Tour de Suisse. I saw that crash live and thought he was dead.

Ricardo Ricco

Ricco talks with the bravado of a freshman drunk on Sour Apple Mogen just before he boots it into his roomate’s underwear drawer. Needless to say, I await his every proclamation. He claims he could’ve won the Giro if he had a team as strong as Astana’s, deftly neglecting to recall that teammates can’t actually ride along and push others during individual time trials, and that would’ve been really handy, as he lost about 4 minutes to Contador in the Giro tests against the clock. Yet Ricardo still thought it a good idea to blast away at his teammates. Now, I don’t want to paint with a broad nationalistic brush, but if there were a couple of nationalities I wouldn’t want to cross in the media, it would be the Spanish and the Italians, but that’s me. Maybe Ricardo might actually enjoy the taste of Mediterranean-flavored urine in his water bottles. Will he win? Absolutely not. Will he act as if he’s won? Of course. Plus, there’s a 75% chance that Phil Liggett calls him “Ricco Riccardo” again – so that’s something to wish for.

Christophe Moreau

I’m including Moreau here just for old time’s sake – as there no way he’s in contention for the win. He may not even succeed in his usual quest for 10th place. He’s on the Agritubel team, a team so small that I think they get their food parachuted in from the Red Cross to their tent village every night. Poor Christophe’s Tour career is like an AMC Gremlin, you may ride it around for fun and you might even get radical and stretch it into a limo – and the ironic effect might be good for a few giggles – but what you really end up with is elongated crap.

The Legion of man crushes

Thor SMASH! Hushovd

Your first man crush is the most unforgettable, and there can be no one else like Thor SMASH, the mighty Norwegian finisher. I fell for Thor SMASH long ago, and he will always be my sentimental favorite in any sprint finish. For those of you new to the TdS, every time I type Thor’s SMASH name, I add the capitalized word SMASH immediately after as an homage to both his comic book mightiness and an homage to my obsessive nature.

Fabian Cancellara

Fabian has developed this wonderful move where he attacks in the last kilometers of a sprint finish and holds his advantage to the line. He won a Tour stage this way and this year he has won Milan San Remo and two Tour de Suisse stages in this fashion. Being a non-sprinter myself, I have fantasized about winning in this fashion, but I lack the power, moxie and quasi-mullet that Fabian has. Fabian will speak his mind, and after Robbie McEwen kept the Tour de Suisse organizers waiting after one of his sprint wins, Fabian basically said that Robbie was a dick and nobody liked him anyway. That sort of quote warms my heart. If I make him a mix tape to listen to while he warms up for his time trials, that’s cool isn’t it? That’s not too un-masculine is it? There’s nothing wrong with two guys sharing their feelings is there? And he seems like he’d really be into Hall and Oates.

The half-crushes

Flecha

I love Juan Antonio Flecha, but I never loved watching him more than when Salvatore “Toto” Commesso followed his breakaway attempts like a horny tapir near a room full of truffles. It just isn’t the same seeing Flecha attack without his Toto caboose, but that doesn’t mean I don’t want Flecha to win every transition stage.

Gilbert

Philippe Gilbert won Het Volk this year with a 50k-ish attack. He is always trying to get off the front of the race, so he’s a hard guy to not like. Plus, Phil Liggett thinks he’s French.

The sprinters

Mark Cavendish

Right now, Cav has the best jump in the peloton; no one can touch his acceleration in the last 200 meters of a race. If he can get a clear shot at the line, he sprints past other racers as if they were melted to the pavement like the plastic army men my cousin Bobby used to play Nazi flamethrower with. Cavendish’s trouble is that he often gets misplaced in the lead up to the finish. I always giggle at the sight of Cav’s teammates frantically searching for him before the finish so they can try to lead him out.

Robbie McEwen

He’s small, he can be pissy, and he can win a sprint with almost no support at all; which is good, because he won’t be getting any. In the mental puppet show that goes on inside my head, I imagined that Robbie bitched and whined his way into going to the Tour, but I think in reality, Lotto is bringing Robbie to try and guarantee a stage win out of their Tour this year – which is a nice vote of confidence for good old Cadel.

Oscar Freire

There are two types of sprinters – grinders and punchers. Grinders need long, powerful run-ins to be successful. For instance, Tom Boonen and Thor SMASH! are grinders. Oscar is a puncher, and he is a joy to watch. Get him near the line in a cluster of guys and he can ride through spokes to get the win. McEwen and Cavendish are punchers also. Punchers are very exciting to watch as they jump very late and often in confined spaces. I think this will be the year of the punchers – as there aren’t entire teams devoted to leadouts this year – and no, Milram doesn’t count.

Gert Seegmans

No one will be watching Steegmans more closely than Tom Boonen. After last year’s fateful Tour stage, do you remember the one? The one where the mighty Booner couldn’t come around Steegman’s lead out and had to settle for second? Well, that stage will be weighing heavily on the Booner’s mind as he watches the Tour from his seat in his golden house, and yes, in my mind, Boonen lives in a house made of gold – and he drives around in a Lamborghini woven from angel feathers – and if you scratch it, you go to hell. Where was I? Oh yes, Steegmans will try to replace the disgraced Booner as the favorite of the Belgian lady people. But can Steegmans pull off a faux-hawk? I don’t think so.

Filippo Pozzato

Pozzato isn’t really a sprinter, but since the eminently likeable Daniele Bennati won’t be racing this year; Pozzato might think he has a shot at being Liquigas’ fast man. But he needs to untangle his K-Fed braids, pawn a designer man bag and buy a clue. He only won Milan San Remo because everyone was up Booner’s tailpipe, and, granted, he did win Het Volk all on his own, but he isn’t a classic sprinter. He’s got a couple of intermediate Tour stage to his name. He won’t be winning any sprints. He’s got get away to win, so he’s kind of like Philippe Gilbert – without the classiness. He also doesn’t like Cavendish, so we have the possibility of two of the most outspoken riders taking swipes at each other in the press. There’s nothing like a French Tabloid slap fight!

The climbers

Mauricio Soler

He’s the only climber who probably has no shot at the overall, but he’s a lot of fun to watch. He rides his bike like a hunched troll, yet it’s an endearing silhouette he casts. He may be battling Moreau for the Polka Dot Jersey, the competition that suddenly no ones really cares about.