This year marks the 5th edition of the Tour day Schmalz. According to the wedding/anniversary industrial complex, the traditional 5th anniversary gift is wood, and I think everyone is expecting me to make some sort of off-color remark about having wood already here — but I have matured beyond such childish declarations. I am a grown-up, full-bodied journalist-ish now and that sort of nonsense is way beneath my sensibilities. Plus, it’s the afternoon here and my wood deliveries usually occur in the morning. But enough about my personal lumber issues, we have a disclaimer to deliver here. As I’ve said every year, the TdS exists mostly to make fun of very hard working professional bike racers of the Tour de France. It’s not fair that I get to do this, but life is not about fairness, otherwise Spencer Pratt would’ve burst into flames about 3 years ago. And now that we’ve got the preamble out of the way, let’s get to the race.

We are about to embark on what may be the most anticipated Tour of the past 20 years. This Tour could resonate like the battle between Hinault and Lemond in 1986 or the eight second duel between Lemond and Fignon in 1989, or, dare I say it, the battle Flecha had in trying to shake the sleeveless Toto off his tail in 2005. This year we have all the elements of a Victorian Melodrama or Sweet Valley High book waiting to hit the roads of France in a big pile of Lycra and chamois cream. We have Lance Armstrong, the aged star making a comeback. There’s Alberto Contador, a star at the peak of his powers, who just happens to be on the same team – awkward! We have Andy Schleck, a young star on the rise. And then there’s Cadel Evans, a man who gets so rattled by media attention that he threatens to behead anyone who touches his beloved pet water rat. And there are other contenders at this tour, of course, most notably among them, Carlos Sastre, Denis Menchov and Christian Vande Velde, and hell, I’ll even throw Levi a bone and call him a contender also, but it looks like there the focus of all the pre-race drama will be between Armstrong and Contador and their internecine battle to see who becomes the team leader. I anticipate that VS will milk this controversy for all it is worth, mostly by creating some motion based graphics and dramatic theme music, as it’s rumored that Mr. Livestrong is miffed at the network for some reason or another and won’t be talking to them. I imagine that this is all poppycock because, Twitter be damned, there’s no better way to whip up some awareness than by sitting in front of a camera and rambling on about the "epic" nature of the Tour and how he respects his opponents and the race and really doesn’t hate French people, even though they are smelly and they hurt his feelings by not spontaneously carving roadside statuettes of him out of their own dung as he pedals by.

But I digress. This will undoubtedly be a very interesting Tour. There’s only 56 short individual time trial kilometers, so that means the Tour will be decided in the hills. It may be through attacking or it may also be through just a plain old bad day in the mountains (™ Levi Leipheimer), but make no mistake, the hills will hold the key to victory. It also means that whippersnappers like Alberto Contador and Andy Schleck will have an opportunity to jump all over Lance Armstrong’s lawn and knock over his garden gnomes, and if Lance has lost any climbing explosiveness, there might not be anything he can do about it except pull his pants up around his nipples and shake his fist in the air. This Tour will be tough on the hill grinders like Cadel, Menchov, Levi, and VDV; as Contador, Schleck and Sastre will try to vary the speed as much as possible, making it very hard to keep a consistent pace. They will have their revenge in the ITTs, but they might run out of time trial road before they can make up the mountain deficits.

This year also will have two radio-free days at the Tour, which sounds like it could induce some mayhem or even a breakaway that affects the GC, but mostly it will allow a few French guys (don’t think I didn’t notice, ASO) to take a swipe at the front on the Bastille Day stage and it will spare Pozzato’s director from hearing his desperate requests for more hair product for two days. 

The Contenders 

Andy Schleck

He won Liege, and he can climb, but he’s only a year older than the ode to masculine man-type guy-love "Top Gun", so he’s got a lot to learn, especially when it comes to properly oiling up before a beach volleyball game. And yes, astute readers will realize that this is the second year in a row that I’ve referenced "Top Gun" in my TdS preview — I am a bit fixated, but there’s nothing wrong with a fella enjoying a good movie with explosions, jets and shirtless locker room scenes, is there?

Where was I? Oh, you just can’t be sure about Andy Schleck, even Andy himself is unsure about Andy Schleck. Unlike his brother Frank, he can hold his own in a time trial, but Andy is susceptible to losing large blocks of time in road stages. He should be a contender if he remembers to show up every day and put his shoes on the right feet.

Oh, and he bought himself a pond to celebrate his Liege win. It’s hard to not like a guy who buys a waterhole to celebrate a big win.

Linus Gerdemann

Everyone seems to be dismissing the chances of little old Linus (who thankfully still looks like Hillary Swank). He missed last year’s race with a broken leg, but recently has won the delightfully named International Bayern Rundfahrt five day stage race. He was at the Tour de Suisse, where he finished 16 minutes down. So his chances at a podium are a long shot, but I like mentioning him — as he is so very pretty.

Cadel Evans

In the Dauphine this year, we had something akin to a Yeti sighting, it was a display of Cadel Evans attacking repeatedly in the mountains to try and dislodge Alejandro Valverde from the top spot on the podium. It was really cute really to see him trying so hard. Granted, he employed some classic cat 5 tactics by attacking from the front of the group each time, but give him time — he’s new to this. I predict he hits the podium, but not on the top spot. I also predict that he will shriek and flail his arms about like a hysterical mini T Rex if any of the race motos get to close to him while he’s trying to ride his way into 4th place.

Carlos Sastre

Quick, name last year’s Tour winner. You had to think about it for a minute didn’t you? It was none other than Carlos Sastre. He pulled off a big stage win on Alpe d’Huez last year with the help of the Schleck brothers, and that, along with a adequate ride in the final time trial, was enough to win the Tour. Carlos will undoubtedly take a chance with another of his all or nothing attacks, but I don’t think it will have the same effect as last year.

Denis Menchov

While we’re playing guessing games, quick – who just won the Giro? Admit it, you thought it was DiLuca for a second didn’t you? Welcome to the nightmare that is the job of Denis Menchov’s publicist — though I doubt he has a publicist —but let’s pretend he does for comedy’s sake. Can you imagine the speaking offers? "Denis, tell us how you rode a good time trial and then followed everyone around in the mountains at the Giro!" "Denis, can you describe Diluca’s backside in extreme detail?" Sadly, even though he’s won a Giro and two Vueltas (thank you very much, EPO), I just don’t see a Menchov speaking tour packing venues from coast to coast. It’s OK to be a boring guy who’s exciting on the bike, like Sastre, but to be a boring guy who races defensively? I can almost hear the French hissing from here.

Levi Leipheimer

It will take multiple calamities at Astana before they go to Levi — he might not even be Astana’s plan C. He will be setting the mountain pace for Alberto and Lance, and will be the dutifully carrying the bottles. He will be so far back, he won’t even be able to properly display his usual Bad Day in the Mountains™ in a three week tour.

Lance Armstrong

He’s coming back to the Tour, in case you haven’t heard. And there’s been a million words written about him in the last few months, I’ve read a lot of them and I’m tired of the guy, so let me be brief. He’s an older racer and the first thing to go on older racers is explosiveness. With only 56K of individual time trialing in this Tour, this race will be decided in the hills, most probably on stage 17, which has four cat 1 climbs and one cat 2 climb.

Sure, Lance looked pretty spry in the Giro, but that was against lesser climbers. He will have to contend with those whipper-snappers Alberto Contador (who I’m sure will be a devoted teammate – really, really sure) and Andy Schleck plus Carlos Sastre’s one big mountain attack. Hell, even Cadel was attacking in the mountains in the Dauphine. I fully anticipate seeing long drawn out TV shots of Lance "suffering nobly" while the younger guys attack him like sparrows dive bombing an old crow.

And personally, I think he may be a dick, your feelings may vary.

Alberto Contador

Alberto won the first battle of this year’s Tour, his bro-seph Paulinho is on the Astana team and Horner is at home in Oregon blogging and really, really agreeing with team orders. Contador just won Spain’s TT championships, and he put in a startling performance in the Paris-Nice opening TT; so his ability to ride against the clock is no longer a liability. He will be explosive in the mountains, and can count on great team support — well, maybe not. He can’t count on anything. This Tour may end up as an inter-team battle between the US and Spanish members of the team, and if this were football or obesity, the US would take the win easily. But this is bike racing, so Spain cannot be discounted.

Let’s break down the Astana roster and see where everyone’s loyalties fall shall we? Firstly, there’s Lance, who loves him some Lance. And then there’s his back of the bus interview sidekick Levi, so that’s two. There’s grateful to be employed Yaroslav Popovych, who was hired shortly after Lance’s comeback was announced. That’s three for Lance. On Contador’s side are: himself, Haimar Zubeldia, and Sergio Paulinho. That’s three for Contador.

The swing riders are Andreas Kloden (who probably will go towards Lance), Gregory Rast (he’s from Switzerland, a country known for its radical stances on um, nothing, so he may stay shockingly neutral), and token Kazakh Dmitriy Muravyev. So the fate of the team favored to win the Tour could hinge on the loyalties of a Kazakh domestique that no one except the Borats in charge wanted at the Tour in the first place. Plus, he may have to obey the orders of Vino, his Kazakh overlord. Needless to say, I will be watching Muravyev’s bottle distribution like a hawk.

And let’s not forget that winning this Tour will help make an awesome audition tape for Caisse d’Epargne and Garmin.

Christian Vande Velde (VDV)

There are some things you hope for so much that you almost afraid to speak (or type) them out loud, VDV on the podium or better is one of those things. I think I’ve almost jinxed it too much already, so I’m going to shut up.

Let me just say, if he wins, I will overturn my car and set it aflame in the middle of Doremus Avenue (that’s not on my own street, mind you, I don’t want to drive down property values).

Sprinters

Mark Cavendish

Sorry Thor SMASH, Booner (depending on how the legal wrangling turns out), Benna, Tyler, Oscar, and Heinrich, but the sprints are Cav’s to lose. And he will win most of them, unless he makes a mistake or his bike suddenly turns to oatmeal at the finish.