Yesterday’s fireworks on the Alpe served to show that CSC were, indeed, working for Sastre. Frank Schleck didn’t seem to have any pop on the final climb, and it looks like Andy may have been the better of the Schlecks. Andy also did a better TT earlier in the race, so it looks like little brother may have a better shot at a Tour title then big brother Frank. Will Andy let Frank take another shot next year? Sastre got some time on the hill, but it may not be enough for him to withstand Cadel’s time trialing prowess. 

Hmm, perhaps we should play "virtual TdF GC," and compare the previous TT times of the top 7 and see where they will potentially land on the final TT. The final TT is 53k, and the first TT was a quick 29k, so we can do some quick math and see where everyone will end up on Saturday – so we don’t even have to watch the stage! TTs – so boring!

Here’s the 29k TT times of the contenders (I’ve even included Frank Schleck’s 46th place time – it’s best to try riding that TT bike before the race starts, Frank) 

4 Cadel Evans (Aus) Silence – Lotto                                                        36.11    -0.27 

6 Denis Menchov (Rus) Rabobank                                                          36.18    -0.34

8 Christian Vande Velde (USA) Team Garmin-Chipotle p/b H30       36.21    -0.37

23 Alejandro Valverde Belmonte (Spa) Caisse d’Epargne                 37.18    -1.34

28 Carlos Sastre Candil (Spa) Team CSC – Saxo Bank                      37.27    -1.43

31 Bernhard Kohl (Aut) Gerolsteiner                          37.31    -1.47

46 Frank Schleck (Lux) Team CSC – Saxo Bank                 

37.58    -2.14

Let’s extrapolate those 29k TT numbers out to 53k, shall we? Here are the times and the time behind the leader on the stage: 

Cadel              66:07

Menchov        66:20 (-0:13)

VDV                66:25 (-0:18)

Valverde        68:10 (-2:03)

Sastre             68:26 (-2:19)

Kohl                68:33 (-2:26)

Schleck          69:23 (-3:16)

Here’s the current GC and times:

1 Carlos Sastre Candil (Spa) Team CSC – Saxo Bank             74.39.03

2 Frank Schleck (Lux) Team CSC – Saxo Bank                         -1.24

3 Bernhard Kohl (Aut) Gerolsteiner                                -1.33

4 Cadel Evans (Aus) Silence – Lotto                   -1.34

5 Denis Menchov (Rus) Rabobank                                                           -2.39

6 Christian Vande Velde (USA) Team Garmin-Chipotle p/b H30        -4.41

7 Alejandro Valverde Belmonte (Spa) Caisse d’Epargne                    -5.35

So after Saturday’s TT (assuming no weather factors and that everyone does the same pace/effort as the previous TT), the GC will look as follows:

1 Cadel Evans

2 Sastre @ :45

3 Menchov @ 1:18

4 Kohl @ 2:25

5 Schleck @ 3:06

6 VDV @ 3:25

7 Valverde @ 6:04

Cadel wins!  He even has 45 seconds to burn. Australia rejoices! Well, kind of – it is Cadel after all. We shall see if Sastre gets the wings from the Yellow Jersey.

Today is a classic transitional stage, hilly enough to foil the sprinters and not hilly enough to be considered a mountain stage. It’ll be multiple Frenchmen flinging themselves off the front for glory today. I’m feeling a couple of tries from Chavanel today, and maybe we can get Tommy Voeckler working some magic also. They have two sprint bonuses on the road today, so Oscar Freire may hang in a move to get the sprint points, but if there are enough guys up the road, he’ll take the day off. Today the GC guys will play defense, with CSC smothering any moves they don’t want up the road. 

I tune in and we have 51k to go.

Here’s a Frank Schleck interview – he says the plan wasn’t for Sastre to attack. It was to take time out of Cadel and Menchov. Sastre got away and he and Andy played the team game. Which meant he pretended to look really slow and lost and for Andy to attack repeatedly?

Barredo and Burghardt are away and have about 4-ish minutes on a 3-man chase group and 10 minutes or so on the pack before getting onto the cat 2 climb. We might have some efforts on the hill, or most likely, everyone will take today off.

Cunego is having a bad day and it looks like he might have to abandon – he’s at 22 minutes. We’ll keep a countdown on the petite broom wagon for the Little Prince.

So Sastre’s climb up Alpe d’Huez was about 2 minutes off of Pantani’s record time from 1997, his time puts him at 17th place in the "fastest up the climb" competition. I’m not judging here, just saying. We are in the nest of trust, aren’t we?

43k to go, CSC at the front, riding tempo, killing dreams. Jens looked to have a very non-Jens like day yesterday. I didn’t notice him at the front on the stage. Was he sedated?

Barredo and Burghardt are holding their gap on the climb, we will see if anyone tries some GC tricks today. It’s really the last chance on the road to get any time before the TT on Saturday.

26k to go. We have a nice piece of "hay art " in a field, Paul says the bales text translates to "send more cigarettes for the kids."

If these two stay away, I would have to think Burghardt could smoke Barredo in a two-up finish. Unless Barredo drops him on the final cat 4 bump before the finish.

Paul mentions this area of France is known for having the smallest gene pool in Europe.

B&B are descending now, they are having a discussion – perhaps they are planning on having dinner after the stage? Who wants sangria!?

I would like to "ask Bobke" what his favorite brownie (nudge, nudge) recipe is.

Johan’s on the enhanced coverage now? Now how can they justify calling that "enhanced?"

17k to go. We now interrupt this stage for a doctor’s visit.

I will have to give this stage more attention tonight on the Tivo, as I really enjoy the psychology when you have two guys off the front and they have to work together to maintain their gap, but if they get to the line together, one of them is screwed. It usually means that the guy who has to drop his break partner to win slowly goes insane as the line approaches. The other guy just has to sit on. So the guy doing the work up front starts to get really angry, and he gesticulates in a foreign language. The guy hanging on usually will pretend to not speak the same language, and hilarity ensues. Hopefully as his frustration mounts, Barredo eventually takes a swing at Burghardt. Which I imagine would not do much at all to Burghardt, except elicit a slight Teutonic giggle.

I’m back again. I just went back, and saw the footage of Barredo gesticulating at Burghardt, just after the climb, he’s already starting to lose it.

And I just have to note that I think that Burghardt has a mullet, and it might even be bleached.

I didn’t notice this morning that Cunego had crashed, so he’s actually showing some stones and is chasing.

The lighting in Phil and Paul’s booth gives them the sheen of freshly painted purple corpses, which make for dynamite TV.

14k to go. Our handy workload indicator shows that Burghardt has done 30% of the work, and that Barredo would like to do 100% of the stabbing.

Ugh, what can Barredo do now? That poor SOB.

Cancellara is spritzing water on himself in the pack,

We see the overhead footage of Barredo’s eventual demise; Burghardt is on him like a boyfriend on a babysitter.

Wait – it looks like Barredo has a mullet also! Breaking news! How did I miss that!

11l to go Barredo passes Burghardt and says something – probably offering him a nice weekend with a cousin of his.

10.5 k to go , Burghardt comes around and says something to Barredo, perhaps inquiring about the weight and hair color of the previously mentioned cousin.

Burghardt has to watch Barredo on the last little climb now, the Quick Step car comes up to show Burghardt some lovely photos of Barredo’s cousin.

Burghardt just has to watch Barredo on the hill now, if he can stay with him; it’s going to get ugly for Barredo.

There goes Barredo! His cousin breathes a sigh of relief. Burghardt covers it, calls back to team car and asks for some Brut.

Burghardt looks like Vladimir Karpets’ roadie.

8.5k to go, Barredo jumps again! Burghardt right there, he stops to zip his jersey, and Barredo goes again!

Burghardt collects him, Barredo’s cousin sends her prom dress to the dry cleaners.

The pack is fast asleep.

Burghardt attacks! What!? Was the picture that awful?

4.9k to go, the three followers aren’t really gaining any time.

It looks like Barredo is screwed here. We’ve got about 4ks worth of track race left here. They have plenty of time to play around.

This is great. I’d be pulling for Barredo, but I dislike his hair more than Burghardt’s. Yes, that’s all it takes sometimes.

3.9k to go, we have a little conversation, it Barredo upping his offer to two cousins?

Burghardt calls for the team car to have them Google “Barredo family reunion.”

3.2 k to go, Barredo jumps, Burghardt  is right on it. Apparently there’s a family uni-brow involved.

Dumoulin attacks from the pack, to be annoying. He gets two guys for company.

C’mon show us B&B! I want to see if Burghardt likes hairy chicks!

2k to go, it’s looking pretty awful for Barredo.

Andy Schleck brings back the Dumoulin move, to keep his white jersey.

Barredo attacks again – you can’t say that he isn’t trying.

1k to go, Burghardt on the front, rejecting the offer to spend quality time with some stocky Spanish gals.

So Barredo’s going to jump Burghardt, and then Burghardt comes around? Who wants to bet? Who’s feeling lucky?

Nice, they are weaving like they’ve been to “Toto School.”

Barredo tightens his shoe straps, so he can finish second with properly fitting footwear.

500 meters, this is painfully slow. Burghardt still in front.

Burghardt goes, but I have to think it’s to draw Barredo out.

Nothing doing, Barredo stays behind.

They both go! Burghardt puts it to the barriers, and Barredo can’t come around; he gesticulates in an angry Spanish manner after the line – a family feud has begun.

The rest roll in. Freire gets more sprint points than the others.