I managed to find the login for the site, so out of habit, I am presenting my annual Tour Day Schmalz preview. I will remind everyone that I will say snippy things about racers from the comfort of my office chair, and while this is certainly unfair, no one said life is fair. Fair is for Democrats.

It may be a wide open Tour, but that doesn’t necessarily mean it will be exciting. (I’m looking at you, Ineos.) There’s a dearth of ITT kilometers, and mountains aplenty, but Bernal won the Tour de Suisse by getting a lead and then just grinding away his competition on the rest of the mountain stages. Effective? Yes. Exciting? No, not at all. It was ruthless and efficient, but it was like watching my dad chew creamed corn.

But there is a chance we could be treated to an exciting spectacle, especially if a certain Frenchman has a shot at the GC (this is foreshadowing—such writing!) This feels like a year where anything can happen—or Ineos just rides everyone to death and the race is settled by stage 12. We will get into the scenarios below but first, a transmission from the future.

The young ‘uns are coming

Egan Bernal, Matej Mohorič and Wout Van Aert are the first wave of these guys at the Tour. But soon we’ll see Tadej Pogačar, Remco Evenepoel and (everyone gasp in fear) Mathieu Van der Poel tearing up the roads of France. In the case of Evenepoel, I also think it will be really entertaining to see how Deceuninck – Quick Step handle a Tour with a legitimate contender. How long has it been since they took an overall Tour win seriously? Was it Michael Rogers? Cadel Evans? (I’m ignoring Dan Martin’s tenure, because it never felt like they gave a rat’s booty about his GC aspirations.) No wonder they got gun shy about chasing the GC. Evenepoel is probably going to force them back into the GC circus, and I think it will be a wild ride for those Belgians. 

Can all cyclists sign this petition to deny @mathieuvdpoel @WoutvanAert and @EvenepoelRemco access to the roadraces for the following 4 years. Thank you

— Thomas De Gendt (@DeGendtThomas) June 13, 2019

The GC Contenders

Geraint Thomas and Egan Bernal

It still seems weird that Geraint Thomas won the Tour last year. Every time I’m reminded that Thomas won last year, I have to say, “Oh, yeah that happened.” to myself. Thomas is an all-arounder and last year he was able to hang on valiantly on the climbs, but this year there will be chunks of Geraint left all over the Tour’s high climbs.

Egan Bernal is young, but it’s hard to see that as liability when he’s supported by a team that’s won eleventy billion Grand Tours. He won the Tour de Suisse handily, and I have the sneaking suspicion that we are going to find out Egan Bernal is a badass this year. Froome may recover from his injuries, but Bernal could be the reason he never wins another Tour.

As an aside here, can we all agree that the conspiracy theories surrounding Froome crashing on purpose are complete crap? That being said, if Sky hadn’t been so shady for so many years, people wouldn’t automatically jump to the craziest scenario. Jiffy bags, indeed. I blame Wiggo, mostly because I’d like to do something to piss off Wiggo—it seems like good fun.

Jakob Fuglsang

He beat a better field at the Dauphine than Bernal faced at the Suisse, and he’s a sentimental favorite. But he didn’t face a full Ineos squad (sorry Wout Poels, you’re no Chris Froome. Or Egan Bernal. Or Geraint Thomas.), so it’s hard to say how he’ll stand up to that relentless grinding Ineos miasma. Ineos fever! Catch it!

Would I like to see Fulgsang win? Hell yeah. It isn’t likely, but neither was Bran Stark claiming the Iron Throne. Seriously—BRAN?! I would’ve taken Samwell Tarly over Bran, at least Sam killed a white walker instead of taking a crow nap during the most important moment in the history of the North.

Romain Bardet

Romain Bardet has transformed into the epitome of a dashing, panache-infused rider who races for the passion and enjoyment of the sport. Mathieu Van der Poel will soon take over that role (he does also race cross and mountain bikes, so sorry Bardet), but enjoy the glory of the panache while you can, Romain.

If Bardet wins, it will because of some audacious mountain attack. It will make great TV, and Bardet will break down in tears no fewer than eleven times on his way to a win in Paris—and who doesn’t want to see that? If he wins, I am going to have myself a Bardet Partay—which I think involves a dive into a croissant pit and buying a stripey smock-type shirt? I’m not sure about the details, but I can firm those up if Bardet gets close to the win.

Nairo Quintana

I used to think that Quintana had a case for suing Movistar for malpractice for making him (seemingly) go to every Grand Tour for every year of his career. But I looked up the numbers, and he hasn’t really raced more Grand Tours per year than Nibali or Froome, so I guess I’m just bummed that Nairo hasn’t won the Tour. In year’s past, I would be touting Quintana’s chances on a hilly route like we have in this year’s Tour, but he’s flying way under the radar this year. Which might be good? Who can tell? Predicting a Nairo performance is like predicting a Nairo facial expression. 

Mikel Landa

It’s year two into Landa’s leap from fourth place in the Tour with Sky to his… Um, not sure what he leapt to really. He’s gone from Froome support to Quintana support? Is that a lateral move? I guess he’s riding to support Nairo and then maybe Valverde? These inter-team races within races are fatiguing me, just pick a Spaniard and go win with it, Movistar!

Alejandro Valverde

Oh dear God, no. This can’t happen. Don’t let this happen. 

Adam Yates

Adam’s twin brother Simon will be there helping out and I will be making Patty Duke show references for the amusement of myself, the old person demographic and latch key kids that watched TV Land between bong hits after school. The Yates Brothers have a habit of making the right moves but having those moves blow up like a zeppelin filled with hand grenades. Maybe they get it right this year, but a shake of the magic eight ball says “not bloody likely”.

Vincenzo Nibali

What are Nibali’s GC chances? Well, it depends on who crashes. If enough contenders get taken out, who knows? Most likely scenario, Nibali goes for a win on a stage with a downhill finish. Stage 12 seems about right.

Richie Porte

Using past Tours as a reference, it’s most likely that Porte will be one of the GC riders who crashes out of Nibali’s way. He’s crashed out on stage 9 for the past two years. This year stage 9 has a few hills and a downhill finish, so tune it to watch Richie white knuckle it to the finish. Otherwise Porte has shown no indication that he is in form to contest the Tour this year.

Tibot Pinot

Tibot Pinot is just not ready to be Tibot Pinot, Tour winner. It’s just a feeling I have, but I can also feel the heat of the sun when I’m outside and surmise that it’s hot, so some feelings can be very accurate.

Let’s talk sprinters 

Elia Viviani

Viviani as the speed to beat Sagan right now, but in his only head to head race with the Groanin’ Wagon (see below) this year, GW had his number. Vivz will certainly win a stage, because the Wolf Pack (Ugh, I cringe just typing such a dooshy nickname) will make it so.

Dylan Groenewegen

The Groanin’ Wagon (I’m probably the only one who calls him that) can beat everybody on pure speed, but if he has to catch on, chase or go up a hill larger than an overpass, it’s a day for the other sprinters. I predict one, maybe two stage wins.

Caleb Ewan

Ewan hasn’t done the Tour yet?! What the hell is up with that? How is that possible? He should’ve been at the Tour fours years ago. What the hell, Orica GreenEDGE? Needless to say, Caleb will be DESPERATE to win a stage and justify his inclusion. Look for him to get so low in sprints he singes his lip on his front tire.

Peter Sagan 

This year Sagan will be riding with no special jersey. (It still looks weird to see Valverde in the rainbow stripes—aside from the fact that Valverde is still winning races at 39 goddam years old.) Juraj (air quotes) won the Slovakian National Championship, so Sagz will wear a plain old Bora team jersey—for about five days, then he’ll wear the green jersey and all will be right with the universe.

Michael Matthews

Alaphillippe will win the hilly finishes where Matthews excels, and he lacks the top end speed for the group sprints, it’s going to be a tough Tour for Bling.

Climber’s Jersey

Still don’t care about this, some guy from an early break will realize he has a chance at getting it and will go for it. I’m just going to cut and paste that sentence and use it next year also.

The Fun Bunch

Matej Mohorič

I can’t tell if Mohorič is swept away by youthful enthusiasm or he just doesn’t know what the hell he’s doing, either way—I don’t care—I love watching him race like an escaped Labrador. Watch for some crazy attacks from Matej and pray that he never changes.

Thomas De Gendt

De Gendt will try to get into each and every break, and may even win a stage—but he will attempt to be in every break—as he is De Gendt. And after the Tour, he and Wellens will turn around and ride the Tour route backwards to get back home.