The Tour day Schmalz is back again this year, and it continues to be a cruel and unfair look at the Tour de France through the eyes of a bitter and talentless hack who honestly has no right criticizing anyone. But life continues to be unfair—I mean, Snooki wrote a book.

Editorial note, I will not be available to comment upon the first week of the Tour, as I will be traveling the middle portion of the country where the Tour is something that Europeans do, and registers little recognition. Please try to go on without me.

The problem with a dominating performance is that it doesn’t make for very compelling viewing, it’s not until years after the fact that anyone would’ve said, "Wow, I wish I had been there to see Indurain dominate those Tours" (not that anyone would actually say that—I’m just using Indurain’s wins as an example—Indurain was tremendously boring to watch. Also we probably have to use air quotes when we talk about "performances" from that era anyway—sorry "Big Mig") because living through it and seeing it unfold live was pretty excruciating to watch.

There’s a good chance that this Tour will be filled with dominating (or boring, depending on your attitude) performances. Froome looks to be the overwhelming favorite and his team is built to smother any excitement in the hills. Cavendish won five stages at the Giro, and he’s the pick for any stages without hills in the last 20k or so. And if there are any hills near the end, Sagan is the choice to win those stages.

We have the opportunity to see three historical performances and the trouble will be that they will be nearly unwatchable. But fear not, this the Tour, and unexpected things occur. Mechanical mishaps, crashes, shots fired from BB guns—anything can happen. I imagine that Froome’s butt will be so puckered in the dicey-ness of the first week that children will be picking the "poop diamonds" he creates from the roadside after he passes.

Christopher Froome

A year has passed, so I think it’s safe to say it now. Last year’s Tour GC battle was super boring. Actually I said that constantly last year, but let’s pretend I didn’t complain endlessly about Sky in the last Tour. For Sky, last year’s Tour was "mission accomplished". They set out to win the Tour with a British rider and they did it. They paid attention to detail, concentrated on marginal gains and maximized their potential; which is all well and good if you are trying to streamline the accounting department or minimize the downtime of the your delivery fleet, but it make for hellishly dull bike racing. (Bernard Hinault would puke at the notion of anyone looking down at his power meter during a crucial moment in the race—then he’d punch a protester and toss a drunk off his podium—but that’s how the Badger rolls.) And there’s no reason to not believe that Sky 2013 will not be Sky 2012 v2.0.

Actually Froome is probably an upgrade over the previous Wiggo software. He may not have the time trialing ability that Wiggo had, but he’s not far off in the TTs, and he can attack explosively on the last climb on a mountain stage, Which is an important skill to have in this year’s Tour. He has the Sky Bots backing him, and while they be the photographic negative of panache, they are tremendously effectve. The Tour is Froome’s to lose.

Alberto Contador

But what about Contador you may ask? Hmm, he just doesn’t seem like his old self, does he? (That, my friends, is a query that is FILLED with sarcasm, overflowing with sarcasm, really). Alberto beat Froome at the Vuelta last year, but Froome was a bit tuckered out from towing Wiggo up France during all of July.

Froome will look to squish Bert with Porte and the Sky Bots, but Bert is scrappy. He will certainly attack out of pride and frustration, but the trend these days is for attacks to go late in stages (no more e-word long solos moves anymore), so Bert’s attacks will probably end with him getting dragged back by Porte and then making a frown-y face while Froome bursts away for the win.

I predict that Porte will be able to draw Contador’s ass from memory by the end of the race, and Alberto might get a gift win from Froome, but it will be a very frustrating Tour for Alberto.

Tejay Van WhenthehelldoIgetachancehere

He was fifth in last year’s Tour while constantly looking over his shoulder to see if Cadel was huffing and puffing at his backside. Could he have hit the podium last year without his Aussie anchor? It’s hard to say. He’s done well at some one week stage races (he won the Tour of California this year. Quick trivia question—the one guy to win California and the Tour in the same year? Floyd Landis), which, if my calculations are correct are exactly one-third as long as three week stage races. He is an unknown quantity at the three week distance as a team leader. He could be the next big stage racer, or he could be the next one week tour specialist—the next Levi Leipheimer if you will. Wait, scratch that, Levi was on so much junk, we never really knew who he was anyway. He could’ve been a chemically-altered, cat-six insurance adjuster who swiped a uniform and snuck into races for all we know.

I expect the internecine battle for the lead of BMC to be a compelling one, which bring us to…

Cadel Evans

Cadel has finally aged to the point where he can become the grumpy old man of the bike racing world that he has been dying to become. I expect BMC to create a special set of bib shorts that he can pull up around his nipples which complaining about the government. Don’t step on his dogs and stay out of his yard.

Cadel was third at the Giro while going up against against Nibz and Uran—the Sky Bot back up algorithm. This would be promising result for other Tour contenders, but I get the feeling that Cadel won’t be busting moves at the Tour, firstly because he doesn’t know what "busting a move" means, and secondly, Tejay will probably be up the road.

Joaquim Rodriguez

Froome and Sky have to be thanking their lucky clip boards that J Rod’s time trialing abilities fall somewhere between "disastrous" and "tire fire at the nuclear power plant". I am exaggerating slightly here, but if J Rod could time trial, this would be a whole different era in bike racing. Rodriguez can gain chunks of time in the mountains, but then he excruciatingly leaks those hard earned seconds out the back of his time trial bike. Honestly, it’s heart breaking to watch. He may be able to squeak out some stage wins, but his racing against the clock will be a limiter.

He also rides for a team that is just a little more popular than herpes, which bring us to…

Alejandro Valverde

No, Jesus, no! Shut up, shut up! Valverde’s hair plugs serve as a perfect allegory for his attitude towards the rest of the world. "Yes, of course anyone with eyes can see that there’s obviously something wrong up here, but I’m counting on both your courtesy and your apathy to allow me to get away with this egregious act."

Luckily, Alejandro and his clown hair-helmet don’t stand a chance at winning the Tour because he can’t time trial at a Tour winning level.

Thomas Voeckler

It’s really not summer in France until the country sees Voeckler’s nipples flying in the wind as he contorts his face to show the world what it would be like if a man experienced labor pains.

Voeckler may seem like the panache-riddled darling of the Gallic Lady set, but in reality he’s a cold, calculating assassin, who will get pick a stage that suits him, insert himself into a break and crush the hopes of all who dare to accompany him. He will probably not get the polka dot jersey (which is rapidly becoming the "who is winning that jersey competition again?" jersey) again this year, but he will steal a stage win, because that’s what he does.

Will he win the Tour? No, that seems to not be possible.

Andy Schleck

We’re at the point where we have to look really hard to even see whether Andy still shows the faintest sign of being similar to a person who races bikes anymore. We all watched the Suisse to see signs of the old Andy, but he seemed like someone who wanted to be at home assembling castles out of Legos. In fact, at this point we just settle for Andy appearing like he’s interested in racing, you can almost imagine the commentary: "Look, he put his bike shoes on today!" or "He seems like he’s going to do all the kilometers today."

His brother Frank is gone due to dodgy gynecologist appointments, breaking up the Hanson Brothers (the hockey ones, not the "MMMMBop" ones) of bikes. They will not be putting on the foil together at the Tour, and Andy will not be winning the Tour.

Garmin

It feels like many things have to go wrong for things to go right for Garmin. If Sky falters they could be contenders. Ryder Hesjedal and Dan Martin are co-leaders, and Garmin does the co-leader thing better than most teams. Martin seems to have better form than Ryder, but like Tejay, he’s an unknown quantity as leader in a three week stage race. Neither seems like they are having a season that will knock out the Sky Bots.

The Polka Dot Jersey

Going for the polka dot jersey has become almost like an afterthought in this era. It’s a lot like finding a one dollar bill in your pants, you’re glad it’s there, but it’s not really worth that much. It is a pretty jersey though—look for a Frenchman to ride himself into knots to try and keep this jersey.

The Sprints

The first stage of this year’s Tour is a road stage on a flat parcours, which means that the sprinter who wins the stage gets yellow. In other words, stage one will be a blood sprint, and I am very excited by this prospect. Odds favor a big first week for Cavendish and Sagan, but there will be mayhem in the opening stages, and inevitably someone will lose out, we’ll just have to wait and see who it will be.

Mark Cavendish

Cav won five stages at the Giro, he is the most dominant sprinter of the current era. In any stage without a hill in the last 20k, he is the favorite, and pretending otherwise is foolishness. He could easily win five stage at this Tour, unless there’s a hill near the end, which would favor…

Peter Sagan

Can we all shut up about Sagz’s finish line salutes? Because if we complain, they go away, and bikes get more boring. Sports are essentially entertainment, and Sagz doing a wheelie while crossing the line is very entertaining. I enjoy it and I hope he never stops. Sagz has proven he can hang with elite climbers and get to the line and win. He could get three stages wins, and he probably still cares about getting the green jersey, so I guess he’ll try for that.

Andre Greipel

Greipel is a strong, likable sprinter who would be winning the poop out of a more races if he weren’t constantly sprinting against Cavendish. That being said, Greipel still catches Cav out every once in a while, and he’ll be good for a win or two during this year’s Tour.

Marcel Kittel and John Degenkolb

Argos-Shimano is bringing both of their German sprinters to the Tour, Degenkolb claims to be the foil to Sagz while Kittel will try and solve the Cav riddle. Both face an uphill battle, but things happen in sprints, so there’s always hope. And speaking of things happening in sprints…

Nacer Bouhanni and Roberto Ferrari

I expect to see either a Bouhanni or Ferrai shaped mushroom cloud of crashiness in every contested field sprint during this Tour. Those guys are nuts!. But enough about the sprinters, they get too many podium kisses as it is.

The stage hunters

Sylvain Chavanel

Juan Antonio Flecha

Johnny Hoogerland

Jérémy Roy

Adam Hansen

I think it’s actually against the rules if there’s not at least one of these guys in every long and seemingly hopeless breakaway. They will all be flinging themselves against the front of the race, and I will shriek like a schoolgirl every time it happens.

Ted King

And on a final note, the KoS™ and pro-ass bike racer Ted King has finally been selected to do the Tour! Ted is unquestionably the racer/diarist I most want at the Tour. I don’t know who he will be writing for, but I know he will be interesting. More info will be probably be found here.